ICS-13 Abstract View

 

Forecasting substorm activity with global MHD and the Minimal Substorm Model
Morley, S.K., smorley@lanl.gov (1)
Haiducek, J.D., jhaiduce@umich.edu (2)
Welling, D.T., dwelling@umich.edu (2)
Magnetospheric substorms can be considered analogous to earthquakes; energy from the solar wind is transferred into Earth's magnetosphere and, after a sufficient period of loading, is rapidly released during substorms. Even though substorms represent a common and fundamental mode of magnetospheric response, we cannot currently predict when a substorm will occur, nor can we determine what the magnitude of the substorm will be. A reduced dimensionality model - the Minimal Substorm Model (MSM) - has reproduced observed distributions of inter-substorm timing interval and substorm magnetic bay magnitude. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) is the global MHD code running operationally at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, but the ability of global MHD models to reproduce substorm occurrence, timing and magnitude has not been demonstrated. We will present simulations of January 2005 using the SWMF and the MSM, and statistical analyses of their forecast skill. Future directions for improving substorm dynamics in global MHD codes, and for operational forecasting of substorms, will be discussed.
(1) Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
(2) University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan