ICS-13 Abstract View

 

Study of the July 12, 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection and its impact at Earth with EUHFORIA: a heliospheric-magnetospheric model chain approach
Scolini, C., camilla.scolini@kuleuven.be (1,2)
Poedts, S., stefaan.poedts@kuleuven.be (1)
Chané, E., emmanuel.chane@kuleuven.be (1)
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts are considered to be the major space weather drivers, and an accurate modelling of their onset and propagation up to 1 AU represents a key issue for more reliable space weather forecasts. However, accurate evaluations of the geomagnetic activity triggered by an impacting CME can only be performed by coupling heliospheric models to 3D models describing the terrestrial environment, e.g. magnetospheric and ionospheric codes in the first place.

In this work we test the predictive capabilities of the newly developed EUHFORIA heliospheric model both in terms of the solar wind predictions at L1, and in terms of the induced geomagnetic activity predicted at ground level. In order to achieve this goal, we make use of a coupled model chain approach by using EUHFORIA outputs at Earth as input parameters for the OpenGGCM and GUMICS magnetospheric models.

In particular, we present an analysis of the July 12, 2010 CME, observed by the SOHO and STEREO missions in coronagraphic and interplanetary images, that caused a moderate geomagnetic storm recorded on ground.

We first simulate the event with the EUHFORIA+Cone model, using CME input parameters determined by multi-spacecraft reconstruction techniques. We then study the propagation and global evolution of the CME up to its arrival at Earth, where we compare in-situ measurements of the Interplanetary CME, with the parameters derived from simulations. We use EUHFORIA outputs at L1 as boundary conditions for the OpenGGCM and GUMICS magnetospheric models, so to study the induced perturbation on the system and the expected on-ground geomagnetic activity level in terms of the Kp and Dst indices. We compare these predictions with on-ground actual data records and with results obtained by the use of empirical relations linking solar wind parameters at L1 to global geomagnetic activity indices. Finally, we discuss the forecasting capabilities of such kind of approach and its future improvements.
(1) Centre for mathematical Plasma Astrophysics (CmPA), KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
(2) Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, SIDC, Royal Observatory of Belgium, 1180 Brussels, Belgium